EURO 2024 - an analysis about referees selection

With the last assignments for Qualification's Play Off finals, it's time to make some predictions about the major tournament, to be held in Germany on next months. 

UEFA Euro 2024, back on even years after the extra-ordinary 2020 ('21) edition

The first question coming to mind, before making the analysis, is surely the following: when  we will have the names for EURO 2024? What we can do is only look back at EURO 2020, the only previous major European tournament with Roberto Rosetti head of refereeing. The names were released on 21 April 2021. For this reason, we can realistically expect them on next month, rather in the second half. This would be very logical after the play off final tests. 

The second question is: how many referees will attend the tournament? Again, we should look back at previous edition, with the same number of national teams participating, so there shouldn't be a difference in this regard. 19 referees from 14 different federations were called by UEFA. We will use this number to make our predictions. In addition, six referees were called as reserve. We will not predict about all the reserve officials for EURO 2024, but we can start from the reserve who were at previous EURO, trying to following a certain chronological path in the selection.

Which referees were called as reserve referees for EURO 2020? Do they have chances for EURO 2024 if still active? Let's then analyze that as first step. Bulgaria's  Georgi Kabakov was a promising referee at that time, but later he didn't manage to convince committee and to get an Elite promotion. Still, having Category 1 referees at EURO would be possible, but very likely he will not manage this step. Stéphanie Frappart as women's representative, joined that competition as fourth official. Today she is in a different condition, having achieved most of her success, it's hard to believe that she could get the call, also for another reason we will explain later in the analysis. Bartosz Frankowski tried to became Poland nr. 2 after Marciniak, but at moment he hasn't gained the needed trust for this very important step. 

The analysis for the next three names becomes more interesting because there are big possibilities that they will attend the major competition in Germany. Italy's Davide Massa, Serbia's Srđan Jovanović and Switzerland's Sandro Schärer for different reasons can be considered as strong candidates. But while for the Italian situation is clearly different,  it's very hard to say about the Swiss and the Serbian. One thing is sure, both were very promising fourth officials at EURO, both followed a certain path, but then something happened. While the Swiss suffered, very likely in different periods, a seriois injury, the Serbian stopped his very good path with an extremely controversial performance in Italy - England game, one year ago and then he also disappeared from UEFA for unknown reasons for a while. He paid surely too much for that, but we can say that if committee appointed him for a CL game, there could be something behind. The reputation until that date was strong. It's still hard to predict him at EURO, but it shouldn't be totally surprising if called I would go for this choice. The main reason should be the fact that committee worked with him and trusted him for a long time. About the Swiss, the recent observation by Velasco Carballo, committee member, is definitely something that speaks in favor of a call, the reason of forcing the process, despite of the injury, could find the same reason for which they tried again with the Serbian. Trusted names, promising Elite. In my opinion the call for the Swiss is more likely than the Serbian, but we could see both. 

Continuing the analysis, we can mention the referees who officiated the semifinals and the finals of EURO qualifiers play offs, a more than trusted pool of very high Elite category. The following names should be safe bets for EURO 2024, mostly without the need of further analysis: István Kovács, Slavko Vinčić, Daniele Orsato, Danny Makkelie, Clément Turpin, Szymon Marciniak, Felix Zwayer, José María Sánchez Martínez and Anthony Taylor.  Among them, just a few words on the English, despite of his form, it's quite clear that Rosetti's committee will select him for the major tournament in Germany, otherwise he wouldn't have got important appointments. 

The question about Spanish referees and their current situation it's hard but at the same time very easy to read. One can easily say that Sánchez Martínez has replaced his countryman Gil Manzano as Spain first choice, so easily predictable that both will atttend the tournament (impossible to think about Gil Manzano out after a path started after EURO 2020 or even before). More chances at moment for José María Sánchez Martínez to get big games, but the last performance doesn't speak in favor of him, given that it was about the EURO qualification of a team then eliminated. All in all, Spain has been very often a country with two Spanish referees in big tournament, I think that this will not change this time, but both are  maybe not at athe top.

To follow, we can focus on the other countries that could have the honor of two referees at the tournament. Having already said about Italy and Spain, quite sure, it's easy to think about England as well. Oliver a quite safe bet for the tournament. Together with Taylor, they shuld be there.  

Another interesting discussion is about the chance to see the second referee from home country, with Zwayer already sure of the call, who could be a second German referee at EURO? The appointments don't say anything to us. Both Siebert and Stieler were not used as EURO candidates, but if one must make a choice between them, under my eyes, Stieler should be ahead. After the path of Siebert, the latter doesn't seem to have regained the trust of committee anymore. The realistic option is to see Stieler but only as fourth official, and this would make two Germans at EURO (but only one main referee).

France presented us a new talent after Turpin, and his name is Letexier, it's simply a must to call him at EURO after what he showed. We can definitely expect him at the big tournament, and this can be another reason for which Frappart could not manage to be there again. She would be third French referee.  

Last but not least country with the chance of two referees at EURO is Netherlands. With Makkelie ready to attend his second major European competition, the recent management of Gözübüyük could suggest us there are some plans for him. Still, a very big appoinment to justify this call should come (and maybe it will come on April?), but a decision should be already taken. He has an extremely experienced AR at his side, very strong argument to think about a selection, he worked for that. In my opinion he could be called, but if compared to other referees, he has less "pedigree". Nevertheless, there can be surely different expectations, and not all the selected officials will be at same starting level, so he could be called.

A particular chapter is surely the one concerning Kruzliak, a referee absolutely "rediscovered" by UEFA committee. Very good performances in recent times, an impressive work with him, even more if we think back at his previous condition of extremely low Elite referee, with the chance of being demoted. In my opinion this would be a deserved EURO call, the assignment as fourth official for a play off final can help us in giving a confirmation.

Coming now into the other names, relatively "young" referees who showed very good skills in recent times, and first of all we should mention Nyberg. His appointment for EURO should be expected, after the excellent path he had. Not the referee of some months ago in occsion of the recent performances, but this shouldn't be  a real problem. Committee has definitely focused on him. To follow, Eskas is surely another name to mention, but in the case of the Norwegian very likely the role of being fourth official could suit more, given the relatively short experience at very top level if compared to the Swedish. Not to forget Meler, some excellent performances in Champions League game, but I see him as fourth official and not main referee for this tournament. Reason is how committee used him in the eaely times, differently from others. But a very big name for the future. 

About Sweden, and the analysis is coming to an end, we should mention the possibility by Tess Olofsson to attend EURO, being WC candidate and in focus by UEFA as well, she would be maybe the female name for this tournament, but I wouldn't be sure in this regard, let's talk just about a possibility.

Finally, the last name should be a CONMEBOL referee as guest, two South American referees were at the Winter Course in Cyprus, one of them will be in Germany.

So, this could be the possible list of EURO 2024 referees (19):

Anthony Taylor (ENG), Michael Oliver (ENG), José Maria Sanchez Martínez (ESP), Jesús Gil Manzano (ESP), François Letexier (FRA), Clément Turpin (FRA), Felix Zwayer (GER), Davide Massa (ITA), Daniele Orsato (ITA), Serdar Gozubuyuk (NED), Danny Makkelie (NED), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Istvan Kovacs (ROU), Srđan Jovanović (SRB), Sandro Schärer (SUI), Ivan Kruzliak (SVK), Slavko Vinčić (SVN), Glenn Nyberg (SWE), CONMEBOL referee. 

The big disappointment would be the miss of the tournament by Soares Dias, the Portuguese must be mentioned, but at moment, despite of a certain gained experience and belonging to a rather strong federation, there aren't signals that he could be at EURO 2024. Definitely a very particular path for him, not easy to read. Still, he could be called, but appointmens don't suggest us that. 

Of course, all are personal opinions!

And you? What do you think? Just write a comment and let us know about your ideas!