Who will officiate Champions League final? More an analysis than a real prediction

Since I was asked for that, I tried to point out some key points, according to my opinion, about the process of selection for 2025-26 UEFA Champions League final referee. Not easy, but here a try.

With the semifinals of the three European club competitions now concluded, it is time to start thinking about the referee appointments for the finals, with particular focus on what is obviously the biggest of the three competitions: the UEFA Champions League.

Without going too deeply into detail, the situation is extremely complicated for the committee, for reasons we already know well, given the final game involving PSG and Arsenal. Even before considering anything else, this automatically removes two top-level candidates for the match: Michael Oliver, whose performances throughout the season have been extremely strong, and François Letexier. Regarding the latter, there may still have been some doubts regardless, whereas in Oliver's case, judging by how he was used during the season, I personally perceived a clear signal that he was among the strongest candidates without an English club in the final.

The reality of the situation therefore leaves the committee with the need to make a choice outside referees coming from England and France. Naturally, attention shifts toward referees who traditionally possess wide UEFA experience, who are at the peak of a certain career path and awaiting what would effectively be a final recognition. This is the classic scheme, but you know, sometimes hard to realize. 

From this perspective, several names can be mentioned. The first one, obviously in terms of experience, is Dutch referee Danny Makkelie, who has had an extremely positive season and even went on to officiate the first leg of the semifinal. In my opinion, that happened out of necessity, otherwise they probably would have avoided using him there in order to keep him as a direct candidate for the final. However, given the committee's already difficult situation, he was still used right up until the penultimate stage.

The Dutch referee made three OFRs in his most recent match, Atlético Madrid  - Arsenal and the Europa League quarterfinal before, but he still comes from a very solid overall path that would have justified a Champions League final appointment under virtually any circumstances. Among all the available names, his profile fits best precisely because of the principle of guaranteeing a completely neutral referee, and logically speaking I believe he should still be the number one choice.

There are, however, factors that inevitably create uncertainty, and those factors are represented by the teams that qualified for the final, namely Paris Saint-Germain, who have not encountered the Dutch referee for quite some time now. This is my observation regarding the entire matter: it is difficult to understand why, after all this time, including a trophy-winning campaign for the French side in between, this meeting  has never happened again in one of the many relatively comfortable matches PSG have played recently.

In my view, Makkelie's candidacy for the final has not completely disappeared, and if I had to name the logical candidate, according to the kind of regular predictions that have always been made in previous years, there is nobody else truly above him at the moment. So much so that, in order to fill certain gaps, other referees with equally significant experience have in some way fallen into controversies and media backlash. Unfortunately though, opening and immediately closing a parenthesis here, modern refereeing has been criticized more and more by supporters, so perhaps certain discussions matter less and less.

Still, setting aside the Dutch referee for a moment, there are obviously others with medium-to-long UEFA experience who can be considered candidates for the final.

One of them is German referee Felix Zwayer who, at the beginning of the season, given his trajectory, could absolutely have been considered a major candidate. Unfortunately, however, he went through a season that calling negative would almost be an understatement, at least up until the group stage, where virtually every match featured two or more VAR interventions. In my opinion, this heavily conditioned his performances and his subsequent appointments in the knockout rounds, where he was only selected for Europa League and Conference League matches. It seems rather clear to me that this reflects the committee's thinking.

Now, if UEFA wanted to turn this situation in their favor by appointing the German referee to a Champions League final, it would feel extremely artificial and difficult to present as credible, with all due respect to Zwayer, who may simply not deserve such an appointment this season, even though it could still arrive in the future should he continue officiating.

There is of course a precedent that many will remember: Milorad Mazic managed to receive the final despite completely skipping the knockout rounds and being appointed directly for the final act. Still, I believe it would be difficult nowadays to see such a choice repeated, especially because in this case it would appear merely opportunistic on the committee’s part.

Moving on , and here the experience of the names to follow is lower than the aforementioned. 

Let us start with Daniel Siebert, Zwayer's compatriot, who has had a genuinely very positive season and even reached the second leg of the Champions League semifinal, trying to deliver his best performance possible. In some ways, Siebert had previously been a lost gamble for Rosetti, and I think the way the Italian head of refereeing has continued to use and support him also reflects a certain desire for redemption, conceptually speaking, of course, in a positive sense, because Rosetti clearly believed in him long ago when he brought the German referee to a major competition such as the European Championship while still being only a Category 1 referee, alongside the Swedish referee Andreas Ekberg, We know well that Siebert's career has been filled with very significant highs and lows.

In the semifinal second leg, he tried above all to limit the damage. Personally, I felt he looked somewhat aware of the huge hot potato he was being asked to handle. One cannot entirely rule him out as a candidate for the final, but in my opinion the fact that Zwayer is heading to the World Cup while being completely absent from the Champions League knockout phase would inevitably create headlines and comparisons, even if that would not really be fair toward Siebert himself, who may well deserve consideration. Still, I don't really see the German referee for the final, also because I think that semifinal second leg may already have represented the maximum he could handle this season in terms of mental concentration and energy. 

Next I would mention Swiss referee Sandro Schärer, who has returned in excellent form. Had it not been for his injuries, the committee would probably have had far more possibilities available, and he would naturally have been one of the strongest names to officiate this year’s Champions League final.

But to summarize briefly, I think appointing him would be impossible because he missed almost the entire season. Giving him such a match based on only a handful of appearances would be extremely difficult, especially considering the others who have worked continuously throughout the entire campaign. Of course, none of this is his fault, injuries happen, but there are still certain balances and factors that need to be respected.

We then move into Italian territory with Maurizio Mariani, a referee who, in my opinion, was selected and promoted mainly as the Italian representative. From a purely technical and managerial perspective, however, I believe he remains well below UEFA's leading Elite referees. Still, with rather good performances and the backing of a powerful federation, sometimes something (everything?) can be built.

I personally think he was not considered suitable for PSG - Bayern and that João Pinheiro was preferred instead. In terms of UEFA Elite-level experience, Pinheiro is probably on a similar level to the Italian referee, not particularly long, but no  short either.

Mariani nevertheless remains a possible name, also because Italian referees have often been appointed for PSG matches. However, appointing him directly to a Champions League final would honestly feel excessive considering he has never even officiated a Champions League semifinal. It would look somewhat improvised due to a lack of alternatives. As someone also wrote on the blog a few days ago, these would be extemporaneous decisions. One does not appoint the referee for a Champions League final as if it were just another ordinary group-stage match.

I hope the concept is clear,  not to discredit the referee himself, but because a certain substance must exist behind such a choice. Many may disagree with this viewpoint because, reading comments online here on the blog, I notice some people believe all these referees are essentially interchangeable. Personally, I don't agree, though of course that remains my own opinion.

And here comes the discussion regarding João Pinheiro. Immediately after the match the other evening, my impression was that beyond Makkelie as the natural candidate, considering his experience and overall profile,  if UEFA wanted to turn toward a different name due to the lack of alternatives, they would probably choose the Portuguese referee.

However, applying the same reasoning used for Mariani,  namely the relatively limited number of Champions League matches officiated, the fact that he has only recently (OK, not very recently, but still... you understand wha I mean) become Elite, and the fact that he has already officiated the UEFA Super Cup,  appointing him to the Champions League final would honestly feel like too much, too soon.

I think the semifinal second leg should in any case represent his final appearance this season. Quite apart from the fact that his performances were quite often far from perfect, there were many situations where VAR intervention might have been expected but never arrived, which helped preserve a certain external appearance while the underlying issues remained visible (at least in my opinion, of course).

That said, I have partially changed my opinion about the Portuguese referee. He certainly has good qualities, but it is also clear to me that he has been placed in situations beyond his current level for the time being. Therefore, I would exclude him as well, because it would still be a very peculiar appointment.

To follow, one could obviously mention Glenn Nyberg, who was observed  by Carlos Velasco Carballo for a Europa League semifinal, but there does not seem to be any real focus on the Swedish referee at the moment. Realistically, I think he could only have been imagined as a possible candidate for this year Conference League final, nothing more, while waiting for potentially better times ahead for him.

I will finish with Hernández Hernández purely as a provocative suggestion, though perhaps not entirely so. If UEFA truly wanted to give meaning to the Spanish referee's World Cup appointment, then appointing him to the Champions League final would certainly do that. Honestly, it would be something almost unbelievable.

Returning to reality, however, I would say that the current Spanish situation is far too complicated for any final appointment to be realistically expected.

So all in all, this should be the current situation while committee having to selected the referee for Champions League final. I don't dare to write any "official" prediction, but I prefer to leave you the scene. 

What do you think, who will be the Champions League final referee? 

And to conclude, just a few words about Europa and Conference League: while for Champions League we have the contrary problem, here absolutely enough names for both competitions, and honestly it's hard to make a prediction. 

A list of some referees who could get either  the EL or ECL final:

Espen Eskås , François Letexier, Maurizio Mariani, Glenn Nyberg, Daniel Siebert, João Pinheiro,  ·