Who will officiate Champions League final? Analysis and prediction

Please find below an analysis about the candidates for 2018-19 UEFA CL final. 

This season the analysis about Champions League final referee is surely easier than past years because we have limited options. Indeed the officials appointed by committee in this CL KO stage are the ones who have the full trust because they can officiate with VAR, after having gained experience with the technology in either domestic leagues or FIFA World Cup. This choice by committee has been clear since the early appointments for this phase of the competition. 

Therefore, at least on paper, this should be the list of all candidates for CL final: Felix Brych (GER), Cüneyt Çakır (TUR), Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP), Björn Kuipers (NED), Danny Makkelie (NED), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Daniele Orsato (ITA), Gianluca Rocchi (ITA), Damir Skomina (SVN), Clément Turpin (FRA), Felix Zwayer (GER). 

As first step we should take a look at the teams who will meet in this CL final: they are both from England, so this doesn't exclude any of the mentioned referees, because nobody is from that country.

We can rule out referees who already got the final and for this reason shouldn't be appointed again. Indeed, apart from Kuipers assignment on last season for EL final, in recent times something like that never happened for CL. So we can eliminate Felix Brych (GER), Cüneyt Çakır (TUR) and Björn Kuipers (NED) from the list as well.

A further selection is about the needed experience for handling such a game: Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP) is a new Elite referee and of course for now he should be ruled out because it would be in any case too early.  He can be very satisfied of what he achieved, culminated in a EL semifinal.

Regarding Zwayer and Makkelie, both have already gained a certain experience but for them it is definitely too early. The Dutch has performed definitely better in this KO stage, and as result he has been rewareded for the first time in his career with EL semifinal. A similar appointment will come soon also for Zwayer in future.

Looking at the recent performances for sure a big disappointment for us comes when we read Marciniak's name. The Polish has shown very poor performances in recent times, sometimes not for his real faults, but still teammates mistakes. After a very controversial game in Barcelona - Olympique Lyonnais in round of 16, he has been "ruled out" by committee, without getting further appointments. So it is quite sure that he wont appear in CL final in any role. 

Clément Turpin has developed and confirmed the expectations this season at very high level. However, my feeling is that UEFA will keep his name for next seasons as very strong candidate for EL final before thinking of a CL major assignment. Also, it would be quite particular to see a referee getting CL final, being so young. Kassai experienced something like that and we all know what happened later also in terms of motivations for him. I think that this season has ended with the appointment for EL semifinal, but surely at moment he is among the ones who are gaining a very big credit for the future.

Antonio Mateu Lahoz, following Barcelona's elimination in semifinal, could be a candidate for the final. This is a very rare case in which there isn't a Spanish team in CL final. This could be a very strong argument, but how much? I think that committee appointed him for a CL semifinal first leg, knowing that it would have been difficult to see him in the final. For this reason, I tend to think that, despite of this big opportunity, the original choice by committee will be confirmed. He has still three seasons to spend as Elite referee and he can keep a big chance for the future. 

Coming to Italian Elite referees, my idea is that before a possible assignment for Orsato, in any case Rocchi should be considered as major candidate, given his great experience as Elite referee. The 45 years old from Florence has the last chance, because he will leave the FIFA list on December. Unluckily he comes from a game in which there has been a very clear crucial mistake made by AR Passeri (Manchester United - Barcelona), so this fact for sure doesn't help him. In my opinion he is the second option for CL final, but the major candidate is indeed the last name of the list not still mentioned in this analysis, and I will dedicate the last chapter to him. 

As I wrote one year ago, it is still not clear why in so many years at high level Damir Skomina didn't get a Champions League final assignment, especially two seasons ago, when he had an excellent form. It is true that Slovenian had many negative periods with poor performances and clear mistakes, but overall you can't deny that he belongs to the pool of best Elite referees of the last (at least) 10 years. Along with Rocchi, the Slovenian is indeed the most experienced Elite referee with a more than impressive palmares. I would find very logical and fair to appoint him this season for CL final: he deserves this game. His last appearance in CL has been characterized by a very crucial VAR intervention in the last minute of the game, for a missed handball. However, I think that committee was not so much disappointed by this incident. After that, he has been appointed for the least sonorous among the EL quarterfinals:  Chelsea - Slavia Prague. This can be read as strategy by committee, to protect him before the CL final assignment. 

So, at the end of this analysis, the final prediction is:

Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG) - Liverpool FC (ENG)

Referee: Damir Skomina (SVN)
Assistant Referee 1: Jure Praprotnik (SVN)
Assistant Referee 2: Robert Vukan (SVN)
Fourth Official:  Ovidiu Hațegan (ROU)
Reserve Assistant Referee: Tomaž Klančnik (SVN)

Hațegan would be there as fourth official as reward for recent performances.