Who will officiate Champions League final? Analysis and prediction

Thank to the delay of the official announcement, we can make an analysis about the candidates for CL final. 

UEFA Elite referees:

Atkinson, Aytekin, Brych, Çakır, Collum, Eriksson, Fernández Borbalán, Hațegan, Karasev, Kassai, Královec, Kuipers, Makkelie, Marciniak, Mateu Lahoz, Mažić, Oliver, Orsato, Rocchi, Sidiropoulos, Skomina, Taylor, Turpin, Undiano Mallenco, Zwayer.

By analyzing the entire pool of UEFA Elite referees, we will try to guess and predict the choice by UEFA Referees Committee for CL final, to be played between Real Madrid and Liverpool.

As first step, we must rule out all the referees coming from the same countries of the contenders, in the case of Liverpool, we should rule out also Collum from Scotland, because UEFA doesn't appoint British referees to British teams in normal conditions. 

So, the first step leaves out: Atkinson, Collum, Fernández Borbalán, Mateu Lahoz, Oliver, Taylor, Undiano Mallenco.

The second important thing, and I strongly hope it will be respected this season as well, is to exclude the referees who already got the big call on previous seasons.

This means that the following names should be out: Brych, Çakır, Kassai, Kuipers.

As third step I would eliminate the referees who have joined the Elite status since a too short time, because such an appointment is surely something to be achieved in many years with a certain experience and having already officiated many top clashes at very high level.

So, names that we have to mention, but surely valid options for the future, are: Makkelie, Oliver, Taylor, Zwayer.

A further step, the most unpleasant to make, if you ask me, is about the referees who can't be guessed as CL final due to their recent performances / not best form: for sure Jonas Eriksson is the first name coming to my mind. He is in a very bad form by years, and, that's for sure a pity, he seems to have lost his motivations forever. In any case, he wont be an option for CL final.
Russian Sergey Karasev has shown to be in a not good period, by producing some weak performances at first in 2017 CL group stage, then also in this KO stage.

So, who remains?

We have: Aytekin, Hațegan, Královec, Marciniak, Mažić, Orsato, Rocchi, Sidiropoulos, Skomina, Turpin.  Coming to a further analysis of these names, we can exclude for sure referees who can't be considered as CL final officials due to the treatment received by committee: Aytekin, who had a chance one year ago to make an important step and failed it. Královec, who was in a very bad form until a few months ago and only in recent times he is recovering, by getting some interesting game, for sure a name for future, but as for now, still not possible to think to see him in CL final. Orsato has a quite good experience as UEFA Elite referee, but in my opinion it would be definitely too early, and, first of all, one should consider the name of his countryman Gianluca Rocchi, with more experience than him. For sure, a candidate for the future, despite he is already 43 years old. Sidiropoulos was never appointed for something really important in CL KO stage.

So, he have as remainig options: Hațegan, Marciniak, Mažić, Rocchi, Skomina, Turpin. 

The Romanian Elite referee has for sure many years ahead as Elite referee, and an appointment as CL final official would come definitely too early, but we must underline that he is surely reliable if we consider his age. He did a crucial mistake in WC play off, but apart from that, in the UEFA games officiated, he was mostly solid. So, for sure going on in this way he will keep a big chance for the future. 

Coming to Marciniak: before Tottenham - Juventus in this KO stage, he had continued his excellent development and confirmation as Elite referee. Then, this match was definitely a nightmare for the whole Polish crew and, honestly speaking, based on that, CL final would be not deserved. In addition, even in case of good performances so far, the natural end of this season for him, in my opinion, given also the "young" age, should have been  Europa League final. We can't burn the stages, referees must develop. Clément Turpin has had the best season as UEFA Elite referee so far, with a more than impressive develpment in all games, underlined by all our readers. We absolutely agree. Nevertheless, coming to a judgment, we should still undeline that it would be too early for the French. He has officiated this season and for the first time ever, an EL semifinal.  So, like many other names, he will have time.

Coming back to Hațegan, it is interesting to compare that, differently from Turpin, he made the step of EL semifinal already one year ago. So in a way, he could ba ahead, at least in terms of development as Elite referee.

Damir Skomina maybe deserves the longest analysis, but I wont be so long. I just don't understand why the Slovenian has not been appointed as CL final referee in the recent two seasons, giving for sure that now, after Roma - Liverpool, he wont be considered. For sure a pity because among all the Elite referees, he is the one with an impressive palmares, experience for about 10 years at high level in Champions League and excellent performances in the recent two seasons. So, if we reason as it was before Roma - Liverpool, we can't find for sure an argument. Why he was not taken into account, only committee knows that. Maybe they didn't expect that he could have made mistakes, but that would be, honestly speaking, naive.

Gianluca Rocchi was one of the best referees in these semifinals, by handling a good game. Taking into account his long experience as Elite, similar to Skomina, and the previous assignments, he  should and must be for sure a valid option for Kyiv. However, what talks against him is the fact that he has already got Super Cup this season, so in case he would officiate another final in the same season, but one must also underline that his performance in CL round of 16 has been not that good. In any case, for sure he stays as second option, in our opinion.

So, at the end of this analysis you can draw the conclusion by yourself that our prediction is the following:

Real Madrid CF (ESP) - Liverpool FC (ENG)

Referee: Milorad Mažić (SRB)

Assistant Referee 1: Milovan Ristić (SRB)

Assistant Referee 2: Dalibor Đurđević (SRB)

Additional Assistant Referee 1: Nenad Đokić (SRB)

Additional Assistant Referee 2: Danilo Grujić (SRB)

Fourth Official: Clément Turpin (FRA)

Reserve Assistant Referee: Nemanja Petrović (SRB)

Mažić would get this appointment without having handled any single game in this KO stage of CL, maybe as strategy by committee, otherwise we can't find other reasons for suich management of the Serbian. At the same time, it is useful to remember that one year ago he was fourth official to Brych in occasion of the previous edition. This could ideally represent a signal of continuity in the committee's choices Turpin would be there as fourth official as reward for recent performances.