I can't start this analysis without mentioning the very particular period we are living, and first of all I would like to make a wish to all readers: keep safe and strong. Hopefully we will be back to normal life soon. The forced break caused by Coronavirus pandemic has indeed influenced the European competitions and both Champions and Europa League have been stopped for a long time. This has led to a very singular end of the season, with KO stages played in a few days, Champions League in Portugal and Europa League in Germany.
So under this point of view it is for sure an easier task, having to make predictions about the final choices by committee, to consider only the referees appointed starting from the resume of both tournaments. We then have: Ivan Kružliak (SVK), Daniele Orsato (ITA), Anastasios Sidiropoulos (GRE), Danny Makkelie (NED), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Michael Oliver (ENG), Bjorn Kuipers (NED), Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP), Felix Brych (GER), Ovidiu Hategan (ROU), Clément Turpin (FRA), Felix Zwayer (GER, Cüneyt Çakır (TUR), Damir Skomina (SVN).
A first selection can bring us to exclude Ivan Kružliak (SVK), who is Elite refeere from a short time and he will have definitely time to make experience. To follow, I would also exclude Anastasios Sidiropoulos (GRE), who got only one game in Europa League and then worked only as fourth official. He can be already satisfied with whate he achieved.
Coming to performance analysis, I think that Felix Zwayer (GER), who has officiated a very controversial game between Juventus and Lyon in Champions League round of 16 should be out as well. The same, not in terms of experience, but, I repeat myself, performance, should be for Cüneyt Çakır (TUR): in my opinion he had a quite negative evening in Barcelona - Napoli and he was never appointed again after that. In my opinion, these two performances, Zwayer and Çakır were the worst ones, starting from the resume of UEFA competitions.
A very particular analysis could be dedicated to Hategan (ROU): the Romanian for sure on paper could have achieved more, a news is reporting that he has been already allowed to go on holidays by committee, I think that we could have expected him as possible candidate for EL final, but for some reasons he didn't manage to get more than a game. Maybe committee wants him to make more experience with VAR. We will see, however, for sure a particular case in which performances have not been so bad, but the referee is still seen in a certain way by committee.
Talking about Skomina (SVN), I think that committee had already planned to put him in a big CL game, without appointing him before, and this was a right prediction. Then, analyzing his performance in Bayern - Barcelona we can easily say that he was below expectations, despite of a game never in discussion, given the final score. For sure he has to recover the form, also after a long time of stop.
Michael Oliver (ENG) deserves for sure a small focus: I think that his countryman Taylor is at moment more considered by Rosetti and the committee, so what the English achieved with some appearance in Europa League, should be already enough for this season. I don't see him as candidate for a final it would be too early.
Having said that, the rest of all officials could be, at least on paper, candidate for one of the two finals. Here the names: Daniele Orsato (ITA), Clément Turpin (FRA), Danny Makkelie (NED), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Bjorn Kuipers (NED), Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP), Felix Brych (GER),.
We can continue our selection by ruling out referees who already got the big call in both competitions and this allows us to exclude: Felix Brych (GER) and Bjorn Kuipers (NED), It would be very particular to see one of them appointed again for a final. However, about Brych we must also mention Bayern presence in semifinal, and committee could have already made a choice. On the other hand, in case of EL final for Kuipers, this would be the third one, and to be honest, quite impossible.
The situations of the two Spanish Elite referees is now a very interesting chapter: I think that Del Cerro Grande has not shown the best performance in occasion of Inter - Bayer Leverkusen, Europa League quarterfinal played in single tie. Nothing too bad, but definitely to consider for a possible future appointment. Also, as some readers pointed already out on the blog, at the moment he already had great success in his UEFA path: with age limits abolishment in Spain, he will have time to get more. So, Antonio Mateu Lahoz can be considered still ahead of him. The latter has been today assigned to the semifinal involving Bayern and Lyon. This doesn't exclude him 100% from the final, but it would be very particular because we didn't see a referee appointed for a semifinal and then also the final with Rosetti, this happened with Collina, but I think now it wont be the same. Very strange that in this context, in case of different appointment for the final, Mateu Lahoz has not been considered. He will have for sure still time, as, like Del Cerro, he will benefit from age limits abolishment in Spain, but for sure this competition, as I already wrote on the blog, will not help.
So the remaining names are: Daniele Orsato (ITA), Danny Makkelie (NED), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Clément Turpin (FRA).
Regarding Taylor (ENG), despite of an excellent development he made on recent times in UEFA games, I think that it would be definitely too early to see him in a final. Key fact: he did Champions League KO stage debut this season. It is quite unlikely to think that committee would be already satisfied to appoint him for CL final. Rather, he could be candidate for EL final, but I will be back on this argument later.
Szymon Marciniak (POL) has shown that he is in a way returned to be the quite good and reliable referee we knew, working on this mistakes, and offering surely good performances. However, I don't think he will be in the middle as main referee for a final, because he got already three games in this end of seasom that should be the highest number among all the referees appointed. I think that his career on the pitch will end in all cases today with EL semifinal: however he has chances to be appointed as fourth official in one of the two finals. I would say the Polish is at moment "working for the future".
Clément Turpin (FRA) has been appointed only in one game, Manchester United - Copenhagen, EL quarterfinal and that's very strange. I would have expected at least a second appointment, this didn't come. We can report that in the game there was a quite obvious mistake by AR1, with a very clear offside missed. The penalty whistled in extra time is for sure an OK decision, but I hae the feeling that for some reasons, he is not so much in focus by committee and not in a very good moment, but differently from other referees, for sure in a better condition. I think that, for getting a final, he should have officiated more before, given also the stop for French competitions decided by federation.
So, you have probably realized what are my ideas for Champions League and Europa League finals, with the teo remaining names. I think that committee will appoint Daniele Orsato (ITA) for the masterpiece in Portugal, while Danny Makkelie (NED) for the one in Germany. Regarding Orsato, it would be a quite surprising choice, because allof us would have expected, in this situation, Mateu Lahoz. But when one year ago I started to make some reasoning about this CL final, I had indeed Orsato as second candidate after the Spanish, so for sure I could understand this choice. Regarding the possible retirement, according to last rumors coming from Italy, there is the chance that he could officiate until World Cup 2022, as Italy wont manage to have other candidates after him (Massa and Guida folow, but they have to work hard and they are already too later for being main referees in Qatar). However, as one could expect, after a long career, he could retire after Euro 2020 ('21), so this can make sense, as overall he has been a quite reliable referee at UEFA level. He was never at the level of Rocchi, and the fact that the latter had to leave without this final was indeed very unfair, but Orsato can manage to achieve this success. What helps us in understanding that this appointment is about to be very likely is the fact that Orsato got only two Europa League games, being far from spotlights, and without a single presence in CL fro the resume. It would be too strange to see him out without apparent reasons. The appointments can always help us, as it was for Skomina, before getting that top clash. This is why I'm very convinced that Orsato will be there. But I want also to add that, as Italian, that in UEFA we never saw the excellent Orsato we see in serie A. He didn't manage to apply the same superb style in international competitions, maybe an issue of language, players, differences and other facts. However, he was absolutely always on the top.
Regarding Europa League final, as said, I can't see other names than Makkelie, the Dutch has impressed, I already wrote a few days ago, immediately after the final whistle of Manchester City - Lyon, that he is ready to achieve more. This appointment would be 100% meritocracy, if you ask me, and for the Dutch, a very good start of an even more brilliant career at very top level. There is for sure not so much to add. Assuming that committee agreed with the assessment made on the 1-2 scored by Lyon in his last game, another assignment should definitely follow, and also in this case, you can easily look at the number of appointment so far: 2, which means that a third in case of good performances, can follow.
So, final predictions are:
Champions League final
Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA)
Assistant Referee 1: Lorenzo Manganelli (ITA)
Assistant Referee 2: Alessandro Giallatini (ITA)
Fourth Official: Clément Turpin (FRA)
Video Assistant Referee: Massimiliano Irrati (ITA)
Assistant Video Assistant Referee: Marco Guida (ITA)
Europa League final
Referee: Danny Makkelie (NED)
Assistant Referee 1: Mario Diks (NED)
Assistant Referee 2: Hessel Steegstra (NED)
Fourth Official: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
Video Assistant Referee: Jochem Kamphuis (NED)
Assistant Video Assistant Referee: Kevin Blom (NED)
And you? What are your predictions for CL and EL final referees?
Turpin again as 4th in CL final? I think an other referee will be chosen.
ReplyDeleteThe same Marciniak
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DeleteI personally feel like the committee doensn't want to take risks in this particular year. So I'm guessing the will appoint two semi final refs for the respective finals. I'm think Kuipers will get his 2nd Champions league final (especially if the two Germans advance - he speaks German) and Brych will get the EL final after his good performance last night. The only alternative here is (Makellie). I don't see Orsato in the CL final after no matches in the CL KO stages...
ReplyDeleteCL
ReplyDeleteReferee: Orsato
4th official: Marciniak
EL
Referee: Makkelie
4th official: Taylor
Excellent analysis Chefren! I fully agree with you, although I think that Turpin will do the UCL final in case both French teams will loose.
ReplyDeleteFinal UEL: Makkelie
Final UCL: Turpin and otherwise Orsato
I think Turpin's quite unlikely to be involved in CL final consdiering two French teams in semi-finals.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if a referee will get CL final for second time, like with FA Cup final in England? Otherwise, I'd have thought Lahoz would have been most likely but he's obviously now got a semi-final.
Appointment wise, Chefrens analysis makes total sense.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in my opinion appointing Orsato would be nepotism from Rosetti. I think despite getting the major decisions right, his performance in Real - City was not convincing. Prior to that, he only refereed a rather low-key quarter final in CL between Bayern and Seville a couple of years back. Never a semi-final in CL or EL, nor a big tournament. So why appoint him for a final now other than for that he's Rosetti's compatriot?
Personally, I would have preferred Lahoz and now (given semi final appointments) Turpin, Taylor or Marciniak
Regarding the "accusation" of nepotism, in any case, Rosetti can't do a single thing to deny that. As Orsato is from the same nation, only way to be free from nepotism "charges" would be to exclude always him from the candidates of a possible final. This speech is nothing against you of course, but prove me that I'm wrong.
DeleteThen, I agree that Mateu Lahoz would have been expected choice and overall maybe even more deserved at international level, but about all the other names, especially Taylor, here I think you are wrong. The English did well recently but he is definitely a "newbie" as Elite referee, with KO stage debut a few months ago, so it is absolutely not a scandal, but the normality, that Orsato is ahead of him. Regarding Turpin, maybe we are on a similar level at moment, but the French has still many years ahead and he can reach everything, Marciniak similar to Turpin but even ahead of Turpin, Marciniak at the end can pay for a moment the bad form he had in recent past and he will be back in future.
In this scenario, Orsato, I repeat myself, is not that wrong choice, only name clearly ahead and without explanations for not getting a final is Mateu, in my opinion.
You are right, he can do little to deny that accusation and hence maybe my wording was unfair.
DeleteI still think that his appointment is would neither be justified going by his current season nor as a recognition of his international career. I believe you that he has an outstanding Serie A career, but I don't think that should be the main consideration.
As of the other referees I mentioned: I think both Turpin and Marciniak have a better record on big international matches, e.g. Arsenal - Atletico EL semi-final or supercup final respectively, where both of them performed well. As of Taylor, I think he simply had a better season with some great group stage performances and a very solid quarter-final. He wouldn't be my first pick but to me this still puts him before Orsato.
I simply can't see any merit-based reasoning that would put Orsato on the top of the list, even with Lahoz out of the equation.
After all analyses, my prediction is Makkelie in CL final, and Cakir in Europa league final. As Chefren wrote, Makkelie was impressed. He have some clashes in last years, much more than Orsato have. So, I think that Danny was great and he deserve CL FINAL in this moment much more than anybody. Reason that Cakir could be in EL final is that he is strong name, and already was in CL FINAL. Cheers.
ReplyDeleteEL final: TURPIN (FRA)
ReplyDeleteCL final: ÇAKIR (TUR). For the same reason Taylor has refereed his second Cup final. However, I would prefer to see Orsato here.
I think that Çakir will referee his second CL final. However, it's a pity that the same ref will have two finals, because there are a lot of refs who deserve a final: Mateu, Orsato, Turpin, Makkelie, Marciniak, Hategan...
ReplyDeleteVery nice post and excellent analysis Chefren. I'm italian but I would like to see a full meritocratic appointment so for CL final my name would be Makkelie despite the fact it could be early
ReplyDeleteAnd Turpin for EL. I think that it makes sense because Rosetti is not so polytically oriented
The only thing that didnt make sense was that Lahoz hasnt been appointed for earlier games, and now it seems that he was a SF candidate from the start (Cl QF and SF highly unlikely). I think he deserved more this season, but if they want Orsato, it is OK decision.
ReplyDeleteUCL Final
ReplyDeleteReferee: Orsato
FO: Makkelie
UEL Final
Referee: Turpin
FO: Taylor
In my opinion, I don't think Turpin as 4th Offial in UCL final because of the possiblity of PSG or Lyon in the final
ReplyDeleteI hope if both PSG and Lyon advances to final, Turpin will involved in UCL final, but UEFA isn't allow Turpin officiate France Derby final despite both of contestants are France. If France team competes with France team,IMO, it's OK because both of team are France.
DeleteUCL Final :
ReplyDeleteReferee : Orsato
FO : Marciniak
UEL Final :
Referee : Makkelie
FO : Taylor
It really feels like two coin flips.
ReplyDeleteOrsato v Taylor for UCL.
Turpin v Makkelie for UEL.
I wonder if the participants in the UCL will matter at all. Let's be honest and say that Leipzig v Lyon before no fans is not exactly the most prestigious Final ever. Conversely, PSG v Bayern would be a big match. Maybe UEFA would feel comfortable gambling more if it's not PSG v Bayern? And that would open it up to Taylor (and maybe even others).
All things being equal, I'll pick Orsato for UCL and Turpin for UEL.
Sorry, but Orsato is not a referee on top level (CL final). I understand circumstances but fact that Italian can be a final referee makes thoughts that UEFA Committee has a problem with
ReplyDeleterefereeing in Europe.
The only explanation that Orsato would be ahead Mateu is age and possible retirement (a problem for appointments will be a one year less).
Maybe a Rosetti think about nominee somebody to second final (behind close doors is not the same than usual final).
If UEFA choose non-European referee it's impossible because of travel bans, and maybe UEFA choose someone to officiate second final or use women referee instead.
DeleteDoes anyone know if Taylor is still in Portugal?
ReplyDeleteHe'd have to quarantine in England if he returned. And I can't imagine he would be kept in Portugal JUST to do a fourth official.
I'm shocked when I see the name Taylor proposed (by some members) for CL (or EL) final. Do you ever watch Premier League ? Do you know his disasters from this season (as main referee or VAR) ? There were some shocking (non)decision made by Taylor.
ReplyDeleteMore than that, I was surprised when I saw his name in a quarterfinal of CL. It's his first season in knock-out phase of CL and he already got a QF. Now I see that some of you can think at something more for him. Guys, there is a waiting list for big matches. Taylor is, more or less, a newbie in Elite. In front of him are many others: Mateu Lahoz, Orsato, Marciniak, Turpin, even Hategan and Makkelie. Yes, Taylor is from England and he is pushed hardly, but please, enough it's enough. It's a matter of common-sense to understand that Taylor can't whistle so early a final (even with big support from his federation). Ok, he was good in last games in Europe, but remember that he made mistakes during last seasons. I repeat, his season in England was terrible, with huge mistakes (as main referee or VAR).
Otherwise, it's preety clear that Orsato will whistle CL final. He is 45 years old and it's last moment for him. Next year he will be 46 and it's somehow unfair to give the final to an over 45. For example De Bleeckere didn't whistle the CL final. He (and many others) didn't have the chance to whistle after 45 years old. For this reason I say it's somehow unfair to give a final (or even a SF, in case of Kuipers) to someone who is over 45. But I have to admit that, based on his international palmares, it was Mateu's turn. Maybe the committee think that Mateu Lahoz will get the final next year (a real one, with spectators). Anyway, one more thing I should say. I don't like Mateu Lahoz, I know how he was pushed in recent years. I remeber how he was selected for WC 2018 after 3 penalties (and a red card) not given in Italy- Sweden. But he came from Spain and his support was huge. But honestly, Orsato is a class above Mateu Lahoz. In fact, I think Orsato deserved more during his career but he was blocked by Rizzoli and Rocchi. That's life, one has more luck than other. Few words about Kuipers: no doubt, great referee. But he is 47 years old, he whistled everything, enough it'enough. It's time for others.
So, Orsato in CL final, Turpin in EL final. I won't be surprised to see Makkelie in Supercup (his performance from Liverpool- Atletico recommends him as a great referee, better than Mateu Lahoz, Turpin, Taylor).
P.S in the end I will say it once again. For Hategan it was his 13rd year as FIFA referee. He didn't whistle a QF in CL in all these years. More than that, this season he didn't whistle a QF in EL either. You can say everything you want but that's a shame. A huge shame !
I totally agree with you on Taylor's Premier League season. It started strong, but deteriorated. However, from what I understand national and international performances are largely considered separately (otherwise Aytekin would probably be the German no 1 in the CL).
DeleteAlso I think it is also safe to say that Taylor would've gotten a CL knockout game last year if it hadn't been for VAR and he performed well in his EL KO games then.
All in all, while he isn't top of my list either, I think it's reasonable to bring up his name. E.g. Kassai got the final in 2011 on similar (UEFA) palmares, having only refereed a R16 KO CL match prior to that season.
Very unfair for Hategan!
Delete@Lewis
DeleteIt's insane to compare Kassai 2011 with Taylor 2020. Kassai whistled the semifinal of World Cup in 2010. That means more that entire career of Taylor (until now and from now). More than that, it was the 2nd season for Kassai in knock-out stage (not the first one, like in case of Taylor). Kassai was a huge talent, a great referee. With all my respect but Taylor is an average referee, you can't compare him with Kassai. Unfortunately, the career of Kassai was plagued by injuries and he didn't fulfil all the expectations we had from him (based on his potential). But still, a career with a WC semifinal and a CL final means that you was a great referee.
I repeat, a good performance in one game (PSG- Atalanta) deosn't mean that you are already a great referee. Esspecially when you made the mistakes that Taylor did this season in Premier League, some of them outrageous. I remember an away game of Man City, when he was VAR and he didn't call for OFR in a 100% foul on David Silva in penalty area (it was really unbelievable that a FIFA referee is unable to indicate penalty for that foul, after he watched all those re-plays).
Unfortunately, referees from East are not treated the same as those from West. It is a fact, not an opinion. If you want a proof, feel free to compare the number of referees selected from Western Europe vs Eastern Europe for all FIFA and UEFA tournaments.
Delete@petschovschi I am not comparing Kassai and Taylor 1 to 1. I am just saying that you don't need years of experience to get a final - as long as you perform well. I think another big difference between Kassai 2011 and Taylor now is that Kassai was a clear favourite for the final from what I recall (after de Bleekere did the semi final 2nd leg). I'm just saying it is legit to put him into the pool, it would not be unprecedented to give a final to someone with that little time in Elite (which is your argument against him).
DeleteAs much as I agree with your PL assessment of Taylor, I don't think it counts to UEFA. I think he did very well in CL and had some great performances in EL KO last year (and we would have seen him in CL if it wasn't for VAR).
@Anonymous: But comparing the number of teams from Western Europe vs Eastern Europe in those tournaments probably gives a similar result or even a lower share.
DeleteBTW, at the last World Cup 4 out of 10 UEFA referees were from Eastern Europe (Mazic, Skomina, Marciniak, Karasev) - that's not too bad...
In CL this season it's 11 out of 40 referees from Eastern Europe - and only 6 out of 32 teams.
@Philipp
DeleteIt's not Western Europe vs Eastern Europe
It's Big 6 vs Rest of Europe
Big 6 are England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Holland. You can check the final stages of european club competitions, various final tournaments and you will see that, no matter what, Big 6 have a referee at those levels.
England didn't have referee in Russia 2018 just because of unexpected retirement of Clattenburg. It was nothing to do for England (Atkinson was +45 years old; Taylor and Oliver were "no one" at that moment)
Italy was in danger for WC 2022. What they did ? They removed the age limit of 45 years old. That was the only chance for Italy to have a referee in Qatar (Orsato will be 47 years old in december 2022).
Some time ago I talked here about the real power of federations like Turkey (vicepresident of UEFA and FIFA was from Turkey), Slovenia (Sajn, Ceferin), Poland (the most important country in Eastern Europe + Boniek). Everything has a explanation. Even the fact that Hategan doesn't have a QF in CL after 13 years. Burleanu, the president of romanian federation, is 35 years old. He's a "no-name" in football world, without any kind of influence (for example he isn't member in UEFA Executive Committee). That's the real true. Some of you said that, in evaluation of a referee, counts only the games from UEFA competitions. Ok, based on international palmares, can you say that Taylor, Oliver, Del Cerro Grande (or even Makkelie) were ahead Hategan ? No way, but they were designated in front of him just because they came from England and Spain.
Anyway, just for statistics:
DeleteWc 2002: Western Europe - Eastern Europe 12-2
WC 2006: Western Europe - Eastern Europe 7-2
WC 2010: Western Europe - Eastern Europe 9-1
WC 2014: Western Europe - Eastern Europe 7-2
Actually Eastern Europe referees are more lucky in one side because in Western Europe is dominate important matches including finals so they are more freely to officiate matches.
DeleteThat you can't compare kassai to Taylor is absolutely right in my opinion, because you can't see him as such a talent AS kassai. But the way you described kassai, you could also describe makkelie today. He is an extraordinary talent and also got some good games already. Because of His very strong season, especially in europe, my tipps are: makkelie for CL final and turpin for El final
DeleteAs far as I remember Makkelie didn't whistle yet a World Cup semifinal. Kassai did it in 2010, just before he got the 2011 CL final. So, Makkelie 2020 is far away from Kassai 2011.
DeleteBut definetely better CL matches than Taylor i think
Delete@petschovschi: Yes, I agree regarding "Big 6" countries. However in most cases, those referees were among the top 10 in UEFA at that time - so it would also be strange to not select them, just because they come from these countries.
DeleteAnd in some cases, the number 2 from the "Big 6" is not selected, although he is better than the number 1 from a smaller country (e.g. Rocchi in 2016 or Fandel in 2006).
And I agree regarding Hategan: He should have got a CL QF or EL SF this season also in my opinion.
Regarding the WCs, the share of teams from Eastern Europe is similar (but indeed a bit higher than for the referees):
WC 2014: 3 out of 13
WC 2010: 3 out of 13
WC 2006: 5 out of 14
WC 2002: 4 out of 15
As mentioned above, this already has improved for WC 2018 though.
For CL we have Skomina and Marciniak (and previously Mazic and Kassai), who regularly feature in the final stages. Not a lot, but still more diversity than for the clubs, who come nearly exclusively from the Big 6 (or even Big 5) leagues.
I think Makkelie deserves a final. UEL may be better than CL, for motivation purposes, but I think he deserves CL most.
ReplyDeleteFor me, Orsato is an 'okay' referee on European level, but certainly not the best. An EL final for him would be okay, but CL is more than he earned on European level I think.
Lahoz would have been an option, though I am not a big fan. Taylor is too unexperienced as an Elite referee.
I feel Makkelie should get EL and a referee who did it before should get CL, if he is (among) the best. Skomina or Cakir would be fine. Otherwise, Makkelie should get CL and Orsato EL.
A clarification about Orsato, the rules in Italy are changing as well, some of them have already changed, other ones about to do so.
ReplyDeleteOrsatom on paper, as ELITE referee, wouldn't have any age limit, so it will be up to him to decide when to retire. The limit of 45 for Italian officials is valid for all officials, unless the UEFA ELITE referees (so Orsato, the only name at moment involved in this situation). The other international referees, from Category 1 and below, have still the 45 years old age as mandatory for retirement. Assistant referees should respect that as well.
However, petschovschi is right when he says that assigning a UEFA final is something more logical to do before or at the age of 45, after that can become a bit particular.
I want to repeat that Orsato has had a very long career so far both at international level and in Italy, I also admit that in terms of performances he has been always excellent in Italy but not the same in UEFA, but he was never really bad. So I think that, taking everything into consideration, would be OK to see him rewarded for his overall career. Because in case, this would be the meaning of the appointment. If I had to make a name for CL, based on performances, and before all the other ones, still for this season, again one can't escape from Makkelie.
Rocchi was also an Elite referee and was forced to retire internationally in 2019. If there is no age limit for Italian Elite referees, why was he not allowed to continue as a FIFA referee until Euro 2020?
DeleteIt was a choice by AIA to remove Rocchi from FIFA list.
DeleteWas it based on age or discretionary? If AIA did not want Rocchi to continue, why would AIA allow Orsato? Shouldn't it be the same criteria for both of them?
DeleteThe choice by AIA was at their discretion. Orsato is now in a different situation than Rocchi. The point of view of AIA was that Rocchi had already achieved big success in his career, by also attending World Cup in 2018. So the decision to remove him has been taken also based on that, and to make room for new names (Maresca, in this case).
DeleteOrsato has still to attend his first major tournament, but first of all, there wouldn't be other options for Italy for WC 2022, so, to avoid a big disappointment coming from a major refereeing school like Italy, for sure Orsato will be allowed to stay, in case he will express this wish.
However, there were also disappointing comments about the choice by AIA to remove Rocchi, but most of all the reason behind all decisions is to favour a functional replacement between referees when they come to a certain age.
Before Rocchi, when Rizzoli tried to stay on the list until WC 2018 (then he renounced) this age limits abolishment only for ELITE UEFA was not still present.
To make it even clear, and I hope you get the point, even if this limit of 45 has been abolished on paper for Elite referees, is still perceived in a way as very important criterion for taking new decisions about the officials to be replaced.
I must say that I would be quite disappointed if these predictions are correct.
ReplyDeleteConcerning CL final, I am very surprised with Mateu’s appointment for OL-Bayern. There could be no more opportunity for him until the end of his career regarding the accuracy with which Spanish teams manage to reach the final. That’s why I think that this match will be given to a referee who already whistled it. I don’t dislike Orsato, but he has never whistled a CL SF, and he has never managed to impose himself as a top referee in UEFA competitions IMO. A few referees deserve it more than him, and age limit should not be more important than performance principle. By the way, if Orsato gets the CL final with Rocchi never whistling it, it would be total nonsense IMO.
Regarding EL final, Makkelie’s choice would be logical since he achieved a brilliant choice. However, many referees deserve it more than him regarding the career : Marciniak, Turpin, Cakir... Marciniak and Turpin have already achieved seasons as good as Makkelie and have never been rewarded with the final. Makkelie’s choice would be logical but unfair IMHO.
My personal predictions :
CL Final :
Cüneyt Cakir (TUR)
FO : Danny Makkelie
EL Final :
Clément Turpin (FRA)
FO : Anthony Taylor (ENG)
By the way, Fourth Officials appointments are usually made to reward the referees who performed well during the season.
IMO:
ReplyDeleteCL Final :
Marciniak
EL final:
Makkelie
I did a referee predictions post on my website – check it out!
ReplyDeleteI too was shocked by Mateu being assigned the CL semi.
http://player23thereferee.com/opinionsanalysis/predicting-the-champions-league-and-europa-league-final-referees-2/
You made some good points, too. May I know your nationality? I am Italian.
DeleteVery interesting your website. Congratulations, Player 23!!!
DeleteMy predictions :
ReplyDeleteCL Final :
Damir Skomina (SVN)
FO : Daniele Orsato (ITA)
EL Final :
Clément Turpin (FRA)
FO : Danny Makkelie (NED)
My prediction for EL final:
ReplyDeleteTurpin, Danos, Gringore, Hategan - Letexier, Brisard
I agree with you
DeleteChefren you made a nice analysis. But you goofed with your choice of Daniele Orsato. Firstly, Gianluca Rocchi who also had a more outstanding and long career at the highest level cannot be denied a CL final even when it was clear that he was approaching retirement age, only for Orsato to be awarded a final just a year after Rocchi's retirement. It makes no sense at all.
ReplyDeleteAlso your comparison of Skomina and Orsato's situation also lacks logic. Skomina has refereed top games in advanced levels of the UCL, and also is a UEL finalist. He has been been considered a great referee in the UCL for a long time now, and that was why he was appointed UCL final ref last year even without officiating many matches that season.
But same cannot be said of Orsato. He is only considered a great ref in Serie A, and far less so in the UCL. And having not officiated even a UEL final nor UCL semis involving top teams, there is little chance he can be bolted up to the UCL finals this year. His nearing the retirement age should not factor at all.
Also for me, people mentioning Taylor, Makkelie, Marciniak and Turpin as candidates for the UCL final can be said to be in too much hurry. These referees, while they have impressed in recent years in the UCL, still have need for further time to garner more improvement and experience to handle far more intense top games at the most advanced levels of the UCL. So they cannot be considered for the UCL final IMO. They can only be mentioned in deliberations for the UEL final appointment.
The ideal choice this year would have been Mateu Lahoz given the absence of Spanish teams this year, but again like previously mentioned referee above, he also needs to be assessed more for the sake of certainty, amd luckily for him, he has some time on his side.
To summarize, therefore, I opine that due to the restructured nature of this year's UCL KO stages of one legged match which has denied the committee of more time and games to assess potential referee appointees plus the absence of the feel of the presence of football fans, the committee may want to play it safe this year by appointing an old top gun for this final. Hence my predictions;
UCL final- Çuneyt Çakir (or Felix Brych if no German team progresses to the final)
UEL final- Danny Makkelie
UCL ORSATO : 4th HATEGAN
ReplyDeleteUEL MAKKELIE : 4th TAYLOR
I really have no idea what to predict after Lahoz’s appointment today!
ReplyDeleteThere are so many possibilities, it I think the most likely scenario is that Rosetti will appoint someone to the CL Final who has already referred that match. For this reason, I am thinking it will either be Skomina or Çakir (possibly Brych in the unlikely scenario that both German teams are eliminated). If Skomina refs the CL final, I think Çakir will referee the EL final, as he has never had that game. If Çakir refs the CL final, it’s anybody’s guess who will have the EL final: Turpin, Taylor, Makkelie...
I have very little confidence in this prediction but here goes:
CL Final: Skomina, 4th Makkelie
EL Final: Çakir, 4th Turpin
I don't think Skomina can referee two successive UCL final given he referee last year's final tho
ReplyDeleteLast Year there were VAR, AVAR1, AVAR2, AVAR3.
ReplyDeleteMy predictions
UCL: Irrati, Guida, Meli, Gil
EL: if Turpin: Letexier, Delerue, Debart, Buquet
If Makkelie: Kamphuis, Blom, Van Roekel, Van Boekel
Good point regarding AVAR2 and AVAR3. IMO it would make sense, to appoint AR and AVAR of the 4O as AVAR2 and AVAR3, where they have the relevant experience. E.g., Bewsick as AVAR2 and Attwell as AVAR3 if Taylor is 4O.
DeleteAll from one country like your suggestions for EL is sensible as well, where enough qualified officials are available.
For EL final, I could also imagine Borsch as AVAR2 - who has WC experience in this role and lives nearby. Maybe also Dankert as AVAR3 then.
Same could be done in Portugal with Soares Dias or Pinheiro as AVAR3 - but they have less international experience.
M.oliverucl final
ReplyDeleteLahoz should have reffed one of the finals but seeing him in the SF, he is out of the equation. A shame, hopefully his time arrives, a referee I like quite a lot.
ReplyDeletewho will referee in Egypt this saturday 22 th august between zamalek vs ahli ?
ReplyDeleteMakkelie confirmed for the EL final
ReplyDeleteSkomina is out, because he has match (slovenian 2nd league) on sunday.
ReplyDeleteWith Makkelie and Turpin out and Taylor with three PSG matches already this season, I also tend towards Orsato now for the CL final:
ReplyDeleteFull prediction: Orsato, Manganelli, Giallatini, Taylor - Irrati, Guida, Cebrian, Hernandez
I write now knowing the referees for EL final. I think that Makkelie had a perfect performance. I was surprised with Sidiropoulos as 4th but taking into account that we are in holidays period I can imagine that the interest for 4th even for a uefa EL final is limited. I share the opinion that Orsato will be the referee for the final UCL. I think that this was fixed just after the fail of the Italian clubs. For Marciniak I saw him in Wolves-Olympiakos, I found him in bad condition.
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